Out of 250 Cardinals, Only 135 Will Decide the Next Pope’s Fate

The death of Pope Francis will ignite a fierce struggle over the future of the Catholic Church, highlighting the complex power dynamics that have marked his papacy.

In the coming days, a high-stakes battle will unfold in the Sistine Chapel, with the future of the church at risk. Over 250 cardinals exist, but only 135 are eligible to vote in the conclave—those under 80 years old. As they make their way to Rome, the eyes of the world will be on them.

Over the 12 years of his papacy, Francis appointed around 110 of these eligible cardinals, casting a wide net globally. Some Vatican watchers argue that he stacked the conclave to ensure a successor who would embrace his vision and continue his work.

However, this group is not monolithic. “It doesn’t mean they are unanimous or cohesive,” says Iacopo Scaramuzzi, a Vatican journalist.

“There are both conservatives and progressives among those he chose.” For instance, Gerhard Ludwig Müller, a German cardinal appointed by Francis, had strong disagreements with the pope, notably condemning the blessing of gay couples as “heresy.”

Francis’s papacy challenged centuries of tradition and angered many conservatives with his emphasis on compassion, tolerance, and inclusivity. His stance on issues such as the environment, migrants, and global capitalism stood in stark contrast to previous popes, with Francis often opting for a humble, unadorned lifestyle. While other popes favored luxury, Francis lived in a simple guesthouse, preferring modest shoes and a white cassock over ceremonial attire.

Though some hoped Francis’s critics would fade after the deaths of his most vocal opponents—Pope Emeritus Benedict XVI and Cardinal George Pell—the opposition continues to be strong. Cardinal Raymond Burke, among others, has long railed against Francis’s stance on gay rights, divorce, and social justice, while figures like Cardinal Robert Sarah have clashed with him on issues like celibacy and the role of women in the church.

Several factors will influence the conclave’s outcome, including the global political climate. “Trump, China, nationalists… these are variables that will somehow count,” Scaramuzzi says. “A desire for someone more orderly, less charismatic, could tip the scale toward a more conservative or progressive pope.” The conclave’s decision will ultimately determine the next chapter of the church—and the battle for the papacy is just beginning.