Ukrainians Await U.S. Election Outcome as Their Future Hangs in the Balance Amid Ongoing Conflict

As Inna sweeps up the shattered glass outside her shop, she reflects on how her country’s fate hinges on the upcoming American elections, held more than 5,000 miles away.

“We hope that Kamala Harris wins and supports us,” she says, her shop’s windows broken by a recent Russian bomb—just one of many incidents in the city of Zaporizhzhia, where a massive crater now marks the road.

“Of course we are worried about the election outcome,” she adds. “We want to defeat the enemy!”

For Ukraine to stand a chance against Russian aggression, it relies heavily on U.S. support. This region was the site of Ukraine’s counteroffensive in 2023, aiming to push back Russian forces, but little progress has been made. Instead, the focus has shifted to mere survival as missile strikes hit towns and cities daily.

Polls suggest that while Democratic Vice-President Kamala Harris has indicated she would continue military aid if elected, a Republican Congress might limit her capabilities. Under a potential second term for Donald Trump, the substantial military support—totaling over $50 billion—could dwindle.

The outcome of the U.S. election will have significant repercussions for Ukraine’s future. If U.S. policy forces Ukraine to concede territory, regions like Zaporizhzhia could face a division similar to that of North and South Korea after their 1950s ceasefire.

Trump has suggested he would “work out something” to settle the conflict, hinting that Ukraine might need to relinquish some land. Conversely, a complete withdrawal of U.S. support could lead to Russian forces advancing unchecked throughout Ukraine.

For many, the prospect of Ukraine liberating all its occupied territories seems increasingly remote. This lack of progress on the battlefield has sparked debate in the U.S. regarding ongoing support for Ukrainian troops like Andriy, who manages a fleet of U.S.-made armored vehicles.

“If aid stops or slows, the burden will fall on the infantry,” he says. “We’ll fight with what we have, but we know Ukraine can’t do it alone.”

As Andriy and his comrades await the U.S. election results on November 5, the uncertainty weighs heavily on their military ambitions and efforts to secure more support. Western allies often look to the U.S. when determining their own assistance to Ukraine.

“When we hear that one candidate, who is less willing to help us, is leading in the polls, it’s upsetting and frustrating,” Andriy shares. “But we’re not going anywhere.”

Amid the changing autumn landscape, Ukrainian soldiers showcase their American-supplied equipment, from drones to grenade launchers, which they say are far superior to their Soviet-era gear.

President Zelensky is also working to promote Ukraine as an investment opportunity to allies, emphasizing the country’s resources and business potential. Drone pilot Serhiy describes how they communicate directly with Western manufacturers for feedback and improvements, showcasing the innovations being developed amid the conflict.

The Biden administration recently pledged an additional $800 million in military aid, underscoring the ongoing support for Ukraine, which has catalyzed reforms in various government sectors. However, there is concern that these advances could be overshadowed by a conflict that increasingly favors Russia.

With a military often reflecting the strength of its society, we meet Lyubov, who experienced Russian brutality firsthand. Her daughter and grandchildren fled to the U.S. at the start of the invasion, highlighting the personal toll of the ongoing war.