Ghana Faces Consistent Power Generation Shortfalls, Impacting Domestic Stability and Exports

An analysis by the Institute for Energy Security (IES) of Ghana’s power generation data from September 1 to October 27, 2024, reveals ongoing and significant shortfalls in meeting daily peak demand.

This situation has repercussions for domestic energy stability and the country’s ability to export electricity to neighboring nations, leading to increased reliance on power imports from La Côte d’Ivoire.

Generation vs. Demand

The data indicates that daily power generation consistently falls short of the system peak demand of approximately 3,700 megawatts (MW), with average generation around 3,000 MW, resulting in a daily deficit of roughly 700 MW.

This persistent shortfall raises concerns about potential capacity limitations, resource constraints, and operational policies that hinder efficiency.

These deficits create daily challenges for Ghana in meeting its total energy needs, prompting practices such as load shedding and prioritizing essential services over broader access.

Demand Satisfaction Patterns

The analysis highlights that power generation rarely exceeds demand, with no instances of surplus generation. While there have been isolated days where generation levels approached peak demand—such as on October 7, 2024—these occasions are infrequent, indicating limited flexibility within the current power infrastructure.

This lack of adaptability is compounded by Ghana’s inability to convert a significant dependable capacity of nearly 5,000 MW into actual generation, hampered by issues such as forced plant shutdowns and fuel supply constraints.

Frequency and Magnitude of Shortfalls

The regularity and scale of these shortfalls are concerning, with the system failing to meet demand each day in the analyzed period. Shortfalls typically range from 700 to 1,000 MW, pointing to systemic challenges within Ghana’s electricity generation capacity. The implications of these discrepancies extend to the country’s capacity to maintain reliable electricity exports, as insufficient domestic supply necessitates reallocating resources meant for export.

Fluctuations in Power Generation

Ghana’s power generation exhibits minor day-to-day fluctuations, remaining within a narrow range of 2,700 to 3,200 MW. This stability indicates a constrained system that lacks the ability to rapidly adjust production in response to demand changes, hindering operational efficiency and responsiveness.

Export Limitations

The relationship between generation levels and export volumes further illustrates the challenges Ghana faces in supplying neighboring countries, including Togo, Burkina Faso, Benin, and La Côte d’Ivoire. Export levels generally fluctuate between 100 and 400 MW and are positively correlated with days when generation is closer to peak demand. However, domestic demand takes precedence, often leading to reduced export volumes, which could strain Ghana’s trade relations and affect energy security for its partners.

Increased Imports

The analysis notes a significant trend of forced power imports during specific periods. From September 12 to 17, 2024, power exports to La Côte d’Ivoire were curtailed, leading to a total import of 1,605 MW from La Côte d’Ivoire between September 18 and October 7, 2024, to meet growing electricity demands.

Summary and Recommendations

Ghana’s power generation consistently fails to meet daily peak demand, which restricts both domestic electricity supply and export reliability. To address these challenges, strategic measures are necessary, including expanding generation capacity, optimizing existing resources, and implementing demand management strategies. Enhanced operational flexibility is also crucial for responding to daily demand fluctuations.

Potential actions may include investments in new generation facilities, upgrades to current infrastructures, and demand response programs that align consumption with available resources.

Additionally, exploring bilateral agreements with neighboring countries could help balance domestic needs with export commitments, ensuring reliability in supply.

In conclusion, Ghana’s electricity generation consistently falls short of its peak demand, impacting both domestic stability and export potential. Addressing these issues is vital for enhancing the reliability of the electricity supply and maintaining Ghana’s position as a regional energy exporter.