“No Researcher Is God” – Prof. Smart Sarpong Defends 2024 Election Projections
Professor Smart Sarpong explains pre-election methodology, blames low turnout for missed predictions, and urges Ghanaians to embrace scientific pollinger says pre-election polls influenced campaign strategy, even if final results differed
- Prof. Sarpong interviewed 100,000 people using a scientific, community-focused approach
- He attributes inaccuracies in his forecast to lower-than-expected voter turnout
- He calls for less emotional criticism
Prof. Smart Sarpong, Senior Research Fellow at Kumasi Technical University, has defended the integrity and methodology of his pre-election forecast for the 2024 elections.
He stated that while the final results deviated from his projections, the research itself was grounded in scientific principles and careful execution.
Speaking on the Ghana Se Sen Morning Show on Lawson TV/Radio, Prof. Sarpong said his team engaged over 100,000 people across Ghana, focusing on individuals who were politically and socially active and concerned about community issues.
“We didn’t just guess. We put what is supposed to be put in place and spoke to the people. We kept records of all who we spoke with—including where they went after the polls. The evidence is there,” he explained.
Prof. Sarpong said every interaction was carefully documented, and in many cases, respondents were called back to validate data and ensure accuracy.
“The details were there. We kept them. We didn’t just collect numbers—we followed through,” he said.
According to him, the results were publicly shared and transparent, yet criticisms have mounted due to the unexpected final outcome, which saw former President John Mahama secure 56.55% of the vote, far above his projected 45.8%. Vice President Bawumia, who was forecast to lead with 49.1%, trailed in the official results with 41.61%.
Prof. Sarpong attributed the discrepancy primarily to low voter turnout, which came in at around 60.9%, far below the estimated 81% his projections were built upon.
“If turnout had reached the expected 81%, my findings would have been confirmed. The turnout changed everything—but the estimate itself was not wrong,” he emphasized.
He defended the scientific grounding of his methodology, stressing that research is not prophecy.
“My basics for research are scientific—whether it comes true or not. No researcher is God. We all estimate the possible outcome and share it,” he noted.
Prof. Sarpong emphasized that his study was conducted 30 days before the election, and that some campaign teams even adjusted their strategy based on the findings.
“Some people took the data seriously and worked on it. That’s the power of research, even if the final outcome surprised many,” he added.
In a passionate appeal, he called for Ghanaians to “take away emotions” when evaluating research.
“Even some pastors correctly predicted who would win the election. Mussa Dankwah was close, but no one got it exactly. Let’s encourage research, not destroy it with emotions,” he said.
Finally, he highlighted that 26% of voters were undecided at the time of the survey, meaning only 73% were firm in their choice—a variable that also impacted prediction models.
With 17 million voters on the register and a sample size of 100,000, Prof. Sarpong insisted the work was thorough and credible.
“We did our best. Let’s respect the role of research in our democracy,” he concluded.
