Fitch Ratings Predicts Ghana to Exit Sovereign Default by July 2025

Ratings agency Fitch has projected that Ghana will emerge from sovereign default by July 2025, anticipating the completion of external debt restructuring by the end of June 2025.

The agency is also optimistic about Ghana finishing its non-bond debt treatment by the end of this year.

This outlook was shared during a recent webinar focused on debt restructuring in Ghana, Zambia, and Ethiopia.

Thomas Garreau, Associate Director of Europe, Middle East and Africa Sovereign Ratings at Fitch, noted that while the completion of the common framework restructuring is expected in the first half of next year, upcoming elections may cause some delays in the process.

Ghana reached an agreement with the Official Creditor Committee (OCC) regarding the parameters for official debt treatment in January 2024, and a Eurobond exchange took place in October 2024.

So far, approximately US$14.2 billion in Eurobonds, including Principal Debt Instruments (PDIs), have been restructured, resulting in a haircut equivalent to 6.2% of the country’s Gross Domestic Product.

Fitch has also indicated that interest payments will decrease, accounting for 8% of projected revenue in 2024, 5% in 2025, and 4% in 2026.