Europa League Success Paves Way for Potential Six English Teams in Next Season’s Champions League

Convincing semi-final first-leg victories for Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur in the Europa League on Thursday have significantly increased the prospect of six English teams competing in next season’s Champions League.

Manchester United secured an impressive 3-0 away win against Athletic Bilbao, the hosts of this year’s Europa League final on May 21, while Tottenham Hotspur defeated Bodo/Glimt 3-1 in their home leg in London.

Statistical analysis by Opta indicates a high probability of both English clubs reaching the Europa League final, with a 97% chance for Manchester United and 91% for Tottenham. This translates to an 88% likelihood of an all-English final in the competition.

Such a scenario would mark only the sixth instance of an all-English final in any major European club competition, with Tottenham involved in half of those previous occurrences. More significantly, it would guarantee an unprecedented six English teams participating in the prestigious Champions League next season.

Despite Opta’s data suggesting a low 12% chance of a non-all-English final, the strong performances of both Manchester United and Tottenham have fueled speculation about England’s dominance in European club football.

Manchester United’s commanding 3-0 victory over a strong Athletic Bilbao side, currently fourth in La Liga, was particularly noteworthy. They will be optimistic that their home advantage in the second leg will see them through to the final.

Tottenham, while also victorious, may feel their position is slightly less secure, especially with fresh injury concerns surrounding key players James Maddison and Dominic Solanke. Norwegian side Bodo/Glimt boast an impressive 70% win rate at home in the Europa League since the 2022-23 season, compared to a mere 9% away, and will have key players returning for the second leg.

Unusual Domestic Seasons Could Lead to “Lowest-Ranked Winner”

The relatively poor domestic seasons of both Manchester United (currently 14th in the Premier League) and Tottenham (16th) mean that if they both reach the Europa League final and maintain their current league positions, the winner would be the lowest-ranked domestic side to lift the trophy in the past 15 years since the Europa League’s rebranding in 2009-10. Opta data highlights that no team finishing lower than 12th has ever competed in or won the final during this period.

The new league phase formats introduced in European competitions this season, where teams finishing third in their Champions League groups now drop into the Europa League, theoretically make the competition more challenging to win. West Ham’s Conference League triumph in 2023, while finishing 14th in the Premier League, offers a recent example of a lower-ranked English club achieving European success.

Europa League Victory Offers Champions League Lifeline

Victory in the Europa League grants the winner automatic qualification to the following season’s Champions League, regardless of their domestic league finish. This rule is particularly significant for Manchester United and Tottenham, who are both languishing more than 20 points adrift of the Premier League’s top five, the usual route to Champions League qualification. Without winning the Europa League, neither club is currently on track to participate in any European competition next season. This potential sixth Champions League spot for England would not impact the qualification of the top five Premier League teams, with that fifth spot already secured due to English clubs’ strong collective performances in European competitions this season.

The potential financial windfall for Manchester United from winning the Europa League is estimated to be over £100 million.

England Eyes Potential Clean Sweep of European Trophies

This season presents a unique opportunity for English clubs to achieve a clean sweep of all three major European club competitions – the Champions League, Europa League, and Conference League (though the latter is only in its fourth year). Currently, English teams have representatives in the semi-finals of all three tournaments.

Chelsea hold a commanding 4-1 lead over Djurgarden in their Conference League semi-final first leg, making them strong favorites. However, Arsenal face a tougher challenge in the Champions League after losing their first leg 1-0 at home to Paris St-Germain.

Liverpool manager Arne Slot recently commented on the financial strength of the Premier League, noting that even mid-table English clubs possess significantly greater financial resources than top clubs in leagues like the Dutch Eredivisie, contributing to English teams’ success in the Europa League and Conference League. Football finance expert Kieran Maguire echoed this sentiment, highlighting the Premier League’s superior revenue generation compared to other major European leagues, enabling English clubs to recruit and retain top talent.

Previous All-English European Finals:

The first all-English European final was the 1971-72 UEFA Cup between Tottenham and Wolves, which Spurs won. The next occurred 36 years later in the 2007-08 Champions League, where Manchester United defeated Chelsea on penalties. The 2018-19 season saw two all-English finals: Liverpool beat Tottenham in the Champions League, and Chelsea triumphed over Arsenal in the Europa League. Most recently, Chelsea defeated Manchester City in the 2020-21 Champions League final.