Global Growth to Remain Stable, But Sub-Saharan Africa’s Growth to Improve in 2025 – IMF

Global growth is expected to remain stable, though modest, in 2025, according to the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) January 2025 World Economic Outlook Update.

The IMF forecasts global growth at 3.3% for both 2025 and 2026, which is below the historical average of 3.7% (2000–2019), with little change from the October 2024 projections.

However, the report highlights that the global growth outlook presents a mixed picture, with significant differences across economies and a fragile overall growth profile.

Advanced Economies

Growth forecasts for advanced economies show divergent trends:

• United States: The IMF expects the U.S. economy to grow by 2.7% in 2025, an upward revision of 0.5 percentage points from the October forecast. This increase is driven by strong demand, robust labor markets, accelerating investment, and favorable financial conditions. Growth is expected to slow to potential levels in 2026.
• Eurozone: Growth in the Eurozone is forecast to increase but at a slower pace than previously expected, due to weaker-than-expected momentum in manufacturing and continued geopolitical tensions. The growth forecast for 2025 has been revised down by 0.2 percentage points to 1.0%. However, in 2026, growth is anticipated to rise to 1.4%, supported by stronger domestic demand and improved financial conditions.
• Other Advanced Economies: In other advanced economies, growth is expected to remain relatively stable, as recovering real incomes support consumption, while trade policy uncertainties are expected to restrain investment.

Emerging Markets and Developing Economies

In emerging markets and developing economies, the IMF expects growth in 2025 and 2026 to largely match the growth in 2024.

• China: The growth forecast for China in 2025 has been slightly revised upwards by 0.1 percentage points to 4.6%, driven by carryover from 2024 and a fiscal package announced in November. However, the negative effects of trade policy uncertainty and a slow property market are expected to persist. Growth in 2026 is projected to stabilize at 4.5%, as trade policy uncertainties ease and the labor supply slows due to changes in the retirement age.

Sub-Saharan Africa

Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to improve in 2025, marking a positive outlook for the region compared to previous years.

In contrast, growth in emerging and developing Europe is forecast to slow down.

The IMF’s report underscores the complex and varied growth trajectories across global regions, with Sub-Saharan Africa being a notable exception where growth prospects are set to pick up in the near term.